KQT7 opposite A9xx
Playing for 3 tricks.
The line
Played against West x and East J8xx. Not the likeliest lie — the one that defeats the most careless play, which is the one worth showing.
One playthrough against one deal. To ask what another card would have been worth — or what happens when the king sits the other way — take the same cards to the explorer, where you play all four hands and every card you could choose is priced.
The same cards, a different target
A different number of tricks is a different problem, with its own best line.
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The odds are the share of lies on which this line guarantees the target against best defence — the card that hurts you most, whether or not it is the card a book would play.
An entry is counted each time the lead has to change hands after a trick you won. The first lead, and the lead after a trick the defenders won, are free from either hand — you broach the suit from wherever you are.