The course
Why not maximise expected tricks
Step 2 of 4
The 6♠ example
The notes' own example, and the shortest proof that the two objectives really do come apart. You are in a small slam and need twelve tricks.
Line 1 — twelve tricks, 100%.
Line 2 — thirteen tricks 50%, twelve 40%, eleven 10%.
In 6♠ you must take twelve tricks. Line 1 takes twelve 100% of the time. Line 2 takes thirteen half the time, twelve 40% of the time and eleven the rest. Which line?