Why not maximise expected tricks
Step 2 of 4
The 6♠ example
Here's an example from the notes. You're in a small slam and need twelve tricks.
Line 1: twelve tricks, 100%.
Line 2: thirteen tricks 50%, twelve 40%, eleven 10%.
In 6♠ you must take twelve tricks. Line 1 takes twelve 100% of the time. Line 2 takes thirteen half the time, twelve 40% of the time and eleven the rest. Which line?